Why Model-Based Oil Forecasts Keep Missing the Mark

Last week, oil traders cut their bullish bets on crude to the lowest in 16 years on expectations of a glut. Mostly because many forecasters were reporting a looming glut. Yet the moment something threatens any portion of the world’s oil supply, prices jump. So, where’s the glut? Mostly, the glut is in the forecasts published by the International Energy Agency and various net-zero organizations. The problem with these forecasts is that they often ignore data that contradicts their message that the transition to net zero is advancing.…