EIA Calls Peak Shale as Drilling Activity Declines

Peak shale may already be behind us. U.S. crude oil production is now forecast to slip from a record 13.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q2 2025 to around 13.3 million bpd by the end of 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s bombshell June Short-Term Energy Outlook, signaling to an already price-weary industry that shale’s best days are in the rearview. It’s a subtle but significant shift—marking the first extended production dip forecast since the U.S. shale renaissance began more than a decade…