Penn Medicine Model Predicts Tsunami Of Coronavirus Cases In Philadelphia

Stephanie Stahl reports.

MERCER COUNTY RESIDENT.TESTS ARE PERFORMED THERE DALEFRIDAY 10:00 A.M.

TO 3:00 P.M.DESPERATE SCENES CONTINUETO EMERGE FROM THE NEW YORKCITY AREA WHERE ONE HOSPITALNOW HAS A TRUCK BEING USED ASA MAKESHIFT MORGUE.IN PHILADELPHIA TODAY RENEWEDWARNINGS ABOUT HOW CLOSEPROXIMITY AND PEOPLE IN OURAREA FROM THE NEW YORK, AGAINARE BEING ADVISED TO SELFQUARANTINE.HEALTH REPORTER STEPHANIESTAHL HAS THE UPDATE INCLUDINGAN ALARMING PREDICTION FROMPENN MEDICINE, STEPHANIE.REPORTER: UKEE, SEEINGSCENES FROM NEW YORK MANYWONDER COULD IT HAPPEN HERE?NO ONE KNOWS, AND THERE ARE AVARIETY OF MODELS, TRACKINGTHE CORONAVIRUS.SOME MORE POSITIVE.THE ONE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OFTHE PENNSYLVANIA PREDICTS ATSUNAMI, THAT COULD BE SIMILARTO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN NEWYORK.THE GROWING NUMBER OF THECORONAVIRUS CASENESS NEW YORKCITY IS OVERWHELMING HOSPITALSTHERE.PEOPLE COME IN, THEY GETINTUBATED, THEY DIE, AND CYCLEREPEAT.REPORTER: ELMHURST HOSPITALIN QUEENS HAS 13 DEATHS INJUST 24 HOURS.NEW YORK CITY ACCOUNTS FORROUGHLY HALF OF ALLCORONAVIRUS CASES IN THECOUNTRY NOW.WE DON'T WANT PHILADELPHIATO BE NEXT MAJOR SIT ANY THATSITUATION.REPORTER: PHILADELPHIAOFFICIALS HOPING TO AVOIDCATASTROPHE HAPPENING IN NEWYORK ARE INSTRUCTING VISITORSFROM NEW YORK TO SELFQUARANTINE FOR 14 DAYS.THE HEALTH COMMISSIONER SAYSTHAT PHILADELPHIA HOSPITALSWILL HAVE BUSY BUT THEY ARENOT OVERWHELMED RIGHT NOW.BUT THE TEEN AT PENN MEDICINESAYS THEIR MODELING SHOWS ATSUNAMI COMING PREDICTING ITTO HIT PHILADELPHIA INMID-MAY.HE SAYS THAT WOULD INCLUDE1,000 PATIENTS ON VENTILATORS,ACROSS THE PENN MEDICINEHEALTH SYSTEM.IT IS ONE OF THE MANYMODELS OUT THERE TO PREDICTWHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THISEPIDEMIC BUT ALL OF THOSEMODELS PREDICT WE WILL HAVE AWAVE AND MOST IMPORTANT THINGWE CAN DO TO SLOW THAT WAVE ISSOCIAL DISTANCING THAT WE AREDIAGNOSIS RIGHT NOW.REPORTER: STATEMENT FROMPENN MEDICINE SAYS IN PART ITCONTINUES TO TAKE AGGRESSIVEMEASURES TO ENSURE SAFETY,PROTECTION OF THE PATIENTS ANDSTAFF DURING THE COVID-19OUTBREAK.REGARDING REPORTS THAT STAFFHAD BEEN INFECTED, IT SAYS,THEY ARE PLACING QUARANTINEAND INSTRUCTED TO ADHERE TOALL CDC PRECAUTIONS.C -- CBS-3 ASKED TO INTERVIEWPENN DEAN BUT TOLD HE WASESNOT AVAILABLE TODAY.LOCAL, STATE OFFICIALS SAYTHEY ARE IN THE PROCESS OFPLANNING FOR A SURGE OFPATIENTS THAT INCLUDESIDENTIFYING ADDITIONALHOSPITAL BEDS AND EQUIPMENTFOR HOSPITAL SYSTEMSTHROUGHOUT THE REGION.THEY ADD THAT WE MIGHT GETLUCK IF I PEOPLE STAY HOME TO