Why Turkey Canceled Its 1973 Oil Pact With Iraq

Turkey’s decision to cancel the 1973 pipeline agreement with Iraq, retroactive to July 2022, signals a deliberate effort to reshape the terms of northern oil exports on its own terms. Far from a procedural adjustment, the move is designed to reset Ankara’s legal exposure following the Paris arbitration ruling that ordered Turkey to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion for unauthorized exports of Kurdish oil, while simultaneously forcing Iraq into a new negotiating framework more favorable to Turkish interests. The timing is strategic. The Ceyhan…