The road to 2030: How the UK must prepare for an EV revolution
The ban on new petrol and diesel cars will transform UK motoring on a scale never seen before. This in-depth analysis looks at how it can be achieved
Last year, one in 10 new cars offered for sale in the UK was electrified. This represented a mighty jump from the previous year’s one in 30 and dwarfed the 2015 figure of one in 200. Green car advocates were delighted.
However, a landmark decision reached by the government during 2020 – to ban sales of all new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and most hybrids by 2030 – made it shockingly clear that all recent EV gains were chicken feed. To meet legislators’ new targets, sales of battery-electric vehicles and plugin hybrids will need to expand from today’s 150,000 to around 2.4 million in just nine years, a rise of 1500%. It was – is – a staggering demand with unprecedented implications.
In nine years’ time, everyone who buys a new car will have to make it electric – either purely battery-electric, hygrogen fuel cell or (until 2035) a heavily battery-biased plug-in hybrid – because the government has decided that such cars provide the best and quickest means of cutting toxic air pollution in cities and of reducing the greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, currently heating the earth’s atmosphere to dangerous levels.
It’s undoubtedly the most radical, universal, draconian and expensive alteration to the direction of automobile design in history. Demands for improvements to car safety engineering and engine emissions – both headline-grabbers of the 1970s and 1980s – pale into insignificance compared with what lies ahead.
Huge new questions arise. Will the cars of 2030 fulfil our transportation needs? Will they be desirable enough to buy? Can car buyers be educated to ‘get’ EVs in time? Will there be enough electric power and enough charging points to go around? What will happen to the ICE cars that populate our roads in 2030 and a decade thereafter?
For the past couple of months, we at Autocar have been compiling these burning questions (helped by practical enquiries from concerned readers) and chasing answers from experts – nailing down the specifics where possible and pointing to the clear and urgent knowledge gaps where not. Here’s the story so far…
*The issues we face - in depth *
*Just how much electric power will we need? *Electricity demand peaked in the UK in 2005 - it's been falling ever since.
*Can all our power rewquirements be from renewables?* Wind power in particular has the potential to meet the government's energy targets.
*How will the National Grid cope, and are blackouts a risk?* The short answer is "probably not"
*How many electric car charging points will we need, and what kind? *Public charging providers have plans to introduce many more rapid charging facilities.
*What's the solution for EV owners without home charging points? *Street lamps could be key to expanding on-street charging.
*What investment is promised by the government, and is it enough? *Currently a Pod Point wallbox costs from £449 after government grant.
*What will charging cost the consumer?* Right now, charge costs vary wildly depending on where and how quickly you charge an EV in public.
*Will businesses come to the UK to achieve clean air targets set elsewhere?* Acting first to build a lead in knowledge and skills vital to have success.
*Will the UK's CO2 reduction targets make any difference to global pollution levels?* Truly significant reductions in emissions depend on similarly green action from China and the US.
*Are the UK's clean air targets realistic and achievable? *Both reducing existing emissions and removing greenhouse gases are critical if the gov't's ambitious targets are to be met.
*Can the UK really be a leader in electrification?* While we can't compete with larger economies like China on scale, the UK can and does punch above its weight.
*Where do we go from here?*
Never in the annals of Autocar investigations has such an exhaustive document come up with so many open questions. The 2030 change to EVs (says one office wit) is tantamount to telling a population, only 10% of whom speak Chinese, that Mandarin will be the nation’s lingua franca in nine years’ time.
However, if you look at the bigger picture, our research has turned up many positives. First, car manufacturers are already showing not only that they can make the cars to do the 2030 job but also that they can make them desirable – a vital quality. Second, the technology is rapidly advancing to meet our ever more sophisticated needs: many pundits now say that by 2030, new battery technology will have greatly reduced our concerns about range, charging speed, weight, cost, ‘dirty’ manufacturing and battery degradation.
Car traction batteries may by then be playing a vehicle-to-grid role in storing renewable energy that is presently wasted. And we now know that the National Grid can provide the extra energy we will need: “This is bread and butter to us” was the reassuring quote.
But if the players in the electric car orchestra seem reassuringly willing and able, serious concerns must be expressed about the capabilities of the conductor: the government. As yet, there appears to be no minister with deep knowledge of the subject or responsibility for overseeing the huge changes ahead. Some politicians don’t even know, as you will have read, the difference between a hybrid and a battery-electric car. That’s alarming and depressing.
Funds so far allocated to develop a national charging infrastructure – whose poor performance is continually revealed as the main reason open-minded car users haven’t committed to EVs in greater numbers – look inadequate. Vital detail around the 2030 decision, such as what kind of plug-in hybrid can be sold legally beyond 2030, simply isn’t available.
It’s as if the government, having enjoyed a period of preening itself for blindly making a bold decision, is now content to allow all supporting decisions to emerge from chaos. Autocar sincerely hopes that it won’t be like that. But time is short – and shortening – for our legislators to get a grip.
*READ MORE*
*Official: Government to ban new petrol and diesel car sales in 2030*
*The UK's 2030 petrol and diesel ban: Autocar’s response*