July employment numbers released for Jackson and Josephine counties

Guy Tauer, regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department, breaks down what the latest job numbers in our area mean.

Completeoveragetomor.

Karin caifa will break down what happened, and what to expect moving forward.

Those reports will be at the top of the hour at five and six a-m.

The economy is one of the hot debate topics heading into the 2020 election.

It's only complicated by the coronavirus pandemic and the effects of state local closures.

Today.

Jackson josephine counties released our july employment reports showing a rise in jobs for jackson county and a bit of drop in josephine county.

Joining us now to discuss both of those local guy tower regional economists with the oregon employment department.

Thanks for being with us and ryan glad to be here.

So when you look at those numbers, we see one thing, but what do you see?

Well, we look at the top line number over the month.

The total payroll employment number in jacks in jackson county rose by about 470 jobs.

Whereas it declined by about 370 in josephine county.

So kind of the difference was there was this a little bit more higher private sector hiring in jackson county, both counties lost jobs in local government education, which is typical in july as those seasonal jobs really are gone for the summer.

Um, but we just had a little more private sector hiring in jackson county.

Uh, and also over the year, the trends a little bit stronger, according to these preliminary estimates, you have to remember, these are estimates based on a sample and they will be revised.

So don't put too much stock into one month numbers, or even the couple of months data until we revise these based on actual employers data that the preliminary estimates, uh, showed jackson county losing about three and a half percent.

Um, decline in payroll employment.

Whereas just being county is closer to 8% decline in terms of payroll employment compared to the same month, one year ago.

Well, as you look into the future, i don't know if the crystal ball is really in your, uh, one of your tools in the toolbox, but what do you see heading our way?

Are we continuing to increase those jobs that we lost during the real drop back in march and april?

Or where do you see the numbers going?

Well, looking at some, a little bit more or data, at least through a middle of august, looking at those continued or those initial claims numbers.

And i really looked across a lot of industries and we really have returned to that pre pandemic level of initial employment claims. so while the continued claims are still elevated that's is people claim benefits each week.

They're counting those continued claims numbers.

And those have come down from around 10,000 in jackson county down to around 7,000.

But the initial claims those people filing for new benefits.

Those have really come back down to levels where they were, uh, five months ago before the pandemic started.

And that's really the case across most industries that i looked at.

So.

That the new layoffs, the people that are losing jobs currently seem to be at a pretty low level.

It's just gonna take a while, of course, because of that business conditions and, um, you know, closures of, uh, you know, restaurants after 10 o'clock and things like that, um, before those jobs will slowly return, but i'm looking at the most current numbers.

I'm a little bit better picture in terms of the current numbers of initial claims coming in.

Well, the all that is all positive news, obviously, jackson county, specifically on the governors watch list.

Now, are you concerned that some employers might hold it up to see where those numbers go before they start adding even more employees back?

Well, absolutely.

We have seen a slowing in the improvement in our economy.

So for example, we added about 2,800 jobs over the month in, um, may about 3,500 jobs, private sector in june, and about 1500 private sector jobs in july in jackson county.

So that rate of improvement is slowing.

And i think that's what you'll see until.

Um, consumers are more confident to be traveling as the pandemic coronavirus numbers, um, reduce and people are more comfortable being out and about and returning to more normal activities.

And of course, those numbers have to come down to loosen those restrictions that we're all apparently under as well.

Um, so there's a lot of factors that will determine kind of the trajectory and how fast those jobs come back.

But, um, you know, it's, it's gonna be a slow slog.

I mean, with.

Um, travel, um, cut as much as it is and consumers pulling back somewhat, um, consumer confidence numbers just came out for the u s and weren't, um, particularly bright for today.

So, um, there's a lot of, uh, reasons to be both cautious.

And at the same time, um, uh, positive in terms of the, the recent trends we've seen that we haven't seen a spike back in unemployment insurance claims recently, even despite the cases going up a bit in oregon, um, over the past two months or so guy tower regional economists