Twelve Days After

Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran was conducted in the Pearl Harbor-style. After the very hard blow of the first two days that nearly decapitated its military, scientific and civilian leadership, Iran has incredibly succeeded in shifting hostilities to a potential war of long-distance friction with the Israelis. Iranian intelligence and police are identifying enemy cells active on Islamic Republic territory, finding traitors and collaborators even among the foreigners Tehran hosted for work (Afghans and Turks, for example) or for tourism (such as German Marek Kaufmann who was touring Iran by bicycle and he confessed to being a foreign agent just upon his capture by Iranian police). The missiles that Tehran launched at Israel put quite a strain on Israeli defenses - it was obvious that the Israeli air defense forces were showing signs of fatigue. It is not clear whether the Iranian warplanes were all destroyed in the initial attack or whether they are stationed in safe havens waiting for their moment, but the loss between last Saturday and Sunday of an Iranian F5E ready for takeoff from Dezful base was confirmed. Israel increased pressure on Washington to force direct U.S. military intervention. Donald Trump, with his bombastic style, finally decided to intervene against Iran by dropping a handful of expensive GBU-57 bombs on Fordow and a salvo of the ever-present Tomahawk missiles on two other Iranian facilities. As before, again, after the initial boasting, it really seems that the results of the U.S. attack are not at all as certain as unknown are the consequences in the immediate and more distant future but the Iranian navy has taken a position in the Strait of Hormuz and is actively jamming the GPS signal, preparing for the blockade of the Strait, through which at least 20% of the world's oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas passes: after the favorable vote of the Iranian parliament, all that is now missing is the final vote of the national security council and the price of oil will fly at least toward $130 a barrel (JP Morgan sources). This is under the favorable assumption that the oil-based monarchies' pipelines are not destroyed in some attack.