Iran's Calculated Strike: Why Oil Prices Fell

On Monday June 23, 2025, Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a retaliatory move following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Explosions were reported near Doha, and additional strikes were reported against American assets in Iraq. We would normally expect such developments to send oil prices soaring. Instead, crude prices fell by 6% in late Monday trading. That decline may seem puzzling at first. After all, this was a direct Iranian attack on the largest U.S. military base in…